🎙️ podcast Analysis January 23, 2026 RiskReversal Pod

Gold: Central Bank Demand Drives $6,000 Target Despite Late-Cycle Positioning

Consumer Defensive Commodities
Tickers
1 Pick
Conviction MEDIUM
Risk Profile 1.8/10 (LOW RISK)
Horizon 12-18 months
Signal Snapshot Core Theme: Macro Economic Fragility

GDP strength validates continued risk-taking and rate stability

Income recession masked by wealth effects creates policy pivot necessity

Unemployment Rise; Fed Pivot; Wealth Effect Reversal

Executive Summary

David Rosenberg presents a contrarian economic framework where surface-level GDP strength masks fundamental fragility through unsustainable wealth effects. His analysis reveals three quarters of zero real disposable income growth—historically unprecedented without recession—while consumer spending continues via declining savings rates driven by equity market gains. The 83% of employment excluding health/education contracted 125,000 jobs in 2025, creating what he terms 'jobless and incomeless pro...

Key Investment Opportunity

Food Deflation Margin Expansion

Agricultural commodity collapse creates significant margin expansion for food retailers as wholesale costs decline while consumer prices remain elevated

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