🎙️ podcast Analysis December 18, 2025 Thoughts on the Market

The Policy Trap: When Central Banks Lose Their Inflation Fighting Tools

Real Assets Infrastructure Energy Transportation Commodities
Conviction MEDIUM
Risk Profile 1.4/10 (MODERATE RISK)
Horizon 12-24 months
Signal Snapshot Core Theme: Macro

Inflation expectations anchored, technology deflation continues

Fiscal dominance constrains policy, infrastructure bottlenecks create persistent price pressures

Yield curve steepening; Power grid constraints; Policy effectiveness decline

Executive Summary

Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer identifies a structural shift toward persistent inflation driven by fiscal dominance and supply constraints that fundamentally breaks traditional monetary policy transmission. Lisa Shellett argues policy makers face unprecedented constraints: debt-to-GDP ratios limit fiscal flexibility while $2 trillion annual deficits force the Fed to manage Treasury funding rather than fight inflation. The AI infrastructure boom creates a $10 trillion spending wave dri...

Key Investment Opportunity

Real Assets Inflation Hedge Portfolio

Structural inflation regime requires portfolio diversification beyond traditional stock-bond allocation into assets that benefit from or hedge against persistent price increases

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