🎙️ podcast Analysis December 19, 2025 Thoughts on the Market

The Animal Spirits Paradox: When Corporate Aggression Rewards Equity but Punishes Credit

Investment Grade Credit High Yield Credit Small/Mid-Cap Equities
Conviction MEDIUM
Risk Profile 1.4/10 (MODERATE RISK)
Horizon 12 months
Signal Snapshot Core Theme: Credit Markets

Credit spreads remain tight on growth optimism

Corporate restraint ending, massive issuance cycle beginning

AI spending acceleration; Corporate issuance surge; Spread widening

Executive Summary

Morgan Stanley's global head of corporate credit research identifies a structural divergence emerging in 2026: animal spirits will drive equity outperformance while simultaneously punishing credit markets through aggressive corporate issuance. Andrew Sheetz expects roughly $1 trillion in net US investment grade supply—a massive uptick from 2025—as corporates abandon years of restraint to fund AI capital expenditure, M&A, and expansion. This creates an unusual but historically precedented scenari...

Key Investment Opportunity

Equity-Credit Divergence Trade

Position for historical pattern where corporate aggression drives equity outperformance while credit spreads widen due to increased issuance

...and 2 more investment opportunities

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