🎙️ podcast Analysis December 17, 2025 Thoughts on the Market

The Credit Bridge: When AI Capex Outpaces Cash Generation

Investment Grade Credit AI Infrastructure
Conviction MEDIUM
Risk Profile 1.4/10 (MODERATE RISK)
Horizon 12-24 months
Signal Snapshot Core Theme: Credit Markets

AI capex creates unprecedented credit demand from tech giants

Infrastructure spending insensitive to traditional macro constraints

Capex outpaces cash flow; Credit bridge emerges

Executive Summary

Morgan Stanley projects $2.25 trillion in investment grade bond issuance for 2026, representing 25% year-over-year growth, driven primarily by AI capex that will outpace revenue generation and pressure free cash flow. The firm's credit strategists argue that AI-related spending will be 'relatively insensitive to macro conditions'—meaning companies will fund compute infrastructure regardless of interest rate levels or economic growth. This creates a structural financing gap where credit markets b...

Key Investment Opportunity

Investment Grade Credit Surge

Massive increase in high-quality corporate bond issuance driven by AI infrastructure needs, with spreads remaining contained despite supply surge

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