🎙️ podcast Analysis December 09, 2025 Thoughts on the Market by Morgan Stanley

The Slipstream Strategy: Why Europe's Discount to America Creates a Hidden Arbitrage

European Banks European Defense European Utilities
Conviction LOW
Risk Profile 1.7/10 (MODERATE RISK)
Horizon 12-24 months

Executive Summary

Morgan Stanley's European equity strategist Marina Zavolock presents a 'slipstream' thesis for 2026: European markets will benefit from US strength despite weak fundamentals. The core insight is structural - Europe trades at a 26% discount to the US on a sector-neutral basis, creating an arbitrage opportunity when global risk appetite improves. However, this is a multiple expansion story, not an earnings story. Zavolock expects European earnings to grow just 3.6% versus consensus of 12.7%, drive...

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