Executive Summary
Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist Michael Gapen identifies a critical Fed policy transition that markets are misreading. While the December FOMC delivered a 'hawkish cut,' Gapen argues the Fed has actually shifted from risk management cuts to data-dependent policy, with Chair Powell providing dovish forward guidance on labor market deterioration and transitory tariff inflation. The key insight is that BLS benchmark revisions suggest the economy may already be shedding 20,000 jobs monthly - a real...
Key Investment Opportunity
Long Duration Treasury Position
Fed policy transition creates duration-friendly environment with 10-year yields expected to drift lower as fed funds rate drops to 3-3.25% by Q2 2026
...and 1 more investment opportunities
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