🎙️ podcast Analysis December 12, 2025 Thoughts on the Market

The Last Dance: Why Credit's Final Rally Could Eclipse Equity Returns

Fixed Income Corporate Credit
Tickers
2 Picks
Conviction HIGH
Risk Profile 1.8/10 (MODERATE RISK)
Horizon 12 months

Executive Summary

Morgan Stanley's credit chief Andrew Sheets delivers a counterintuitive thesis: the credit cycle will 'burn hotter before it burns out' in 2026, despite spreads sitting at 25-year tights. The firm forecasts US investment grade net issuance to surge 60% to $1 trillion, driven by AI infrastructure spending and increased M&A activity. This massive supply wave should force US spreads wider even in a healthy economy, creating a regional arbitrage opportunity. European and Asian credit markets, facing...

Key Investment Opportunity

Regional Credit Arbitrage: European and Asian IG Outperformance

Morgan Stanley's forecast of $1 trillion US IG issuance creates a supply-demand imbalance that should force US spreads wider relative to other regions. European and Asian investment grade markets face significantly lower relative issuance pressure, positioning them to outperform US credit despite si...

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