🎙️ podcast Analysis December 04, 2025 Odd Lots by Bloomberg

The Credit Canary: AI's Off-Balance Sheet Leverage Bomb Signals Imminent Private Credit Reckoning

Private Credit Management Off-Balance Sheet AI Infrastructure
Tickers
1 Pick
Conviction HIGH
Risk Profile 1.4/10 (MODERATE RISK)
Horizon 6-18 months

Executive Summary

Noetica AI's proprietary database reveals a stunning 84% of credit deals now include lean subordination terms—the highest ever recorded and a 23-point quarterly jump. This isn't about preventing defaults; it's about controlling recovery when bankruptcy happens. Meanwhile, Meta's $30 billion Hyperion deal with Blue Owl exemplifies a dangerous new structure: 90% leverage on immature AI data center assets kept off-balance sheet through special purpose vehicles. The guest's own data shows creditors ...

Key Investment Opportunity

Short the Private Credit Bubble Through Blackstone

Blackstone represents the purest play on private credit's coming reckoning. The firm has grown assets under management from $618 billion to over $1 trillion largely through private credit strategies that have never faced a real stress test. Dan Wertman's data shows lenders are positioning for recove...

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