Executive Summary
Adrian Godas presents a compelling contrarian framework: buy quality assets in 'scary' jurisdictions while the market flees to safety. His thesis contradicts the consensus view that African mining = automatic discount. The data supports him: West African Resources (Burkina Faso) up 111% YTD despite multiple coups, while Alphamin survived literal rebels at the gates and trades flat month-over-month. The variant perception: jurisdictional risk is cyclical and overpriced by fearful capital. His best current idea is District Metals—buying Europe's largest uranium deposit for $30M during a Swedish mining ban that the government wants to lift. The risk/reward is asymmetric: binary catalyst with 3x+ upside if ban lifts, limited downside given $10K acquisition cost for 1.14B pound uranium resource.
Key Insights
what Adrian Godas said“For the standard of this jurisdictional risk, I always recommend to listen to Perseus Mining, a CEO... he always say that in Africa, the jurisdictional risk is really, it's cyclical. Old countries, they have good moments and bad moments.”
what Adrian Godas said“These majors, they have so many assets that these ones for them are very small... they see that they have three years left and the commissioning cost is 200 million. So the NPV of the cash flows is lower than the commissioning cost to close all the platform.”
what Adrian Godas said“If you buy the classic pre-production sweet spot... you can get a very good risk to reward if you buy after a finance and permitting, and you buy there and sell at first pull. So you get like a 50 to 100% return during the construction”
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