Executive Summary
Adrian Godas presents a compelling contrarian framework: buy quality assets in 'scary' jurisdictions while the market flees to safety. His thesis contradicts the consensus view that African mining = automatic discount. The data supports him: West African Resources (Burkina Faso) up 111% YTD despite multiple coups, while Alphamin survived literal rebels at the gates and trades flat month-over-month. The variant perception: jurisdictional risk is cyclical and overpriced by fearful capital. His best current idea is District Metals—buying Europe's largest uranium deposit for $30M during a Swedish mining ban that the government wants to lift. The risk/reward is asymmetric: binary catalyst with 3x+ upside if ban lifts, limited downside given $10K acquisition cost for 1.14B pound uranium resource.
Key Insights
what Adrian Godas said“For the standard of this jurisdictional risk, I always recommend to listen to Perseus Mining, a CEO... he always say that in Africa, the jurisdictional risk is really, it's cyclical. Old countries, they have good moments and bad moments.”
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