🎙️ podcast Analysis February 20, 2026 Odd Lots

Private Markets: $5 Trillion Tech Sector Challenges Public Market Primacy

Private Equity Venture Capital Software Infrastructure
Conviction HIGH
Risk Profile 1.4/10 (LOW RISK)
Horizon 12-24 months
Signal Snapshot Core Theme: Private Markets

Private companies delay IPOs indefinitely

Private markets offer superior growth access

AI capex requirements; mega-IPO wave; regulatory changes

Executive Summary

Private technology companies now represent $5 trillion in market capitalization—nearly 25% of the S&P 500 and 40% excluding the Magnificent Seven. This represents a 10x growth over the past decade while public company count has halved. A16Z's Growth Fund data reveals the average private investment grows 100% annually at 21x revenue multiples, compared to only three public companies in their universe growing above 30%. The structural shift is profound: historically, 88% of value creation occurred...

Key Investment Opportunity

Private Market Growth Premium

Access to 100% growth companies at 21x revenue multiples while public equivalents trade at higher multiples for slower growth

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