🎙️ podcast Analysis January 29, 2026 Thoughts on the Market

Government Shutdown Risk: Minimal Market Impact Despite Political Theater

Government Services Defense Contractors
Conviction LOW
Risk Profile 0.9/10 (LOW RISK)
Horizon 1-3 months
Signal Snapshot Core Theme: Macro

Government shutdown creates temporary political risk premium

Calendar constraints drive mechanical funding lapse, not ideology

House return; Continuing resolution; Quick funding restoration

Executive Summary

Morgan Stanley's deputy head of global research frames the potential government shutdown as calendar-driven rather than ideologically motivated, with Democrats demanding immigration enforcement oversight while Republicans show negotiating flexibility but face time constraints. The House's absence until early February creates a mechanical path to weekend funding lapse followed by short continuing resolution. Historical analysis shows shutdowns trim roughly 0.1% from annualized quarterly GDP per w...

Key Investment Opportunity

Ignore Political Noise, Focus on Fundamentals

Government shutdown creates temporary market anxiety without altering underlying earnings, inflation, or Fed policy trajectories that drive asset performance

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