Executive Summary
Moses identifies energy stocks as structurally advantaged despite market resilience to multiple macro headwinds. With crude at $100, Dollar-Yen intervention at 160, and global yields rising, the market continues hitting all-time highs—what Moses calls 'three barrels that can't take down the shark.' Energy stocks reached these levels independent of the geopolitical oil spike, driven by improved balance sheets and M&A activity. Exxon's 2030 EBITDA guidance assumed $65-70 oil, creating massive cash flow upside at current prices. Moses notes inflation now filtering through industrial channels with DuPont raising fiber prices 18.5% spot. The passive flow dominance and institutional chasing create self-fulfilling momentum, but Moses warns the consumer will eventually feel higher energy costs. Dollar-Yen at 160 triggers intervention memories of July 2024's VIX spike to 60+, while Japan faces the impossible choice between protecting currency or yields. Moses maintains energy conviction despite overbought conditions, viewing any rotation as buying opportunity. The sector benefits from both higher crude prices and structural improvements in capital allocation, making it resilient to oil price volatility while positioned for continued M&A consolidation.
Key Insights
what Danny Moses said“My instincts suggest Danny, that energy stocks were headed to these levels anyway, despite the move in crude oil. Maybe it would have happened later, but we were headed here anyway.”
what Danny Moses said“DuPont now is raising prices on some of these main inputs, some of these fibers by 18.5% on the spot.”
what Danny Moses said“Here we are on, again, early May. You have a Dollar Yen that recently went up to 160, and magically, intervention came in, and over the course of a few minutes, Dollar Yen went back down to about 156.5.”
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