Executive Summary
Seedy19, a self-taught full-time biotech investor, generated a 35-fold return on his entire portfolio in 2025 using common stock, covered calls, and put writing — no long calls. His framework centers on identifying catalysts where market pricing implies a binary outcome that historical precedent or blinded trial data contradicts. Two names he discusses as current positions are Vera Therapeutics (VERA) and Erasca (ERAS). VERA received FDA approval for its IgA nephropathy drug with a clean label, placing it inside the historical three-to-twelve-month post-approval window where pharma bolt-on acquisitions are most common. At roughly $42 and a $3 billion market cap, the stock sits well below its 52-week high of $56. ERAS is framed as a proxy trade on the RAS/PanRAS oncology niche dominated by Revolution Medicines (RVMD), which trades at approximately $193 and a $39.7 billion market cap with zero revenue. Seedy argues ERAS deserves roughly one-quarter of RVMD's valuation given a similar molecule and potentially superior safety and durability profile. Material risks temper both ideas: VERA shows light insider selling by a senior executive, and ERAS carries an active class action lawsuit and a bearish news sentiment score of -0.57. RVMD itself, the valuation anchor for the ERAS thesis, shows heavy net insider selling of approximately $39 million over ninety days, which weakens the comparative argument. The broader process insight — monitoring specialist biotech hedge fund 13F filings, tracking proxy molecules after large-cap M&A events, and using AI to translate clinical data — is the most durable takeaway for generalist investors entering the space.
Key Insights
what Seedy19 said“The average for post-approval takeout is about six to nine months, where good drugs with clean stories and potential strong launches and blockbuster potential, they get taken out within three to 12 months after the approval.”
what Seedy19 said“The buyout happened, and everyone's like, oh shit, there's that drug there, which is worth $5 million or $10 million, and someone just paid for something similar, $2.2 billion. And within a couple of weeks, drug went from $1 to $75.”
what Seedy19 said“I've made more money betting on companies, stocks, and assets after the data rather than before it, because that's when it actually re-rates, and you have everything in front of you. And by the time the institutions move, and they've done their diligence, and they start to take a huge position, their outlook's a lot larger than yours.”
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