🎙️ podcast Analysis February 25, 2026 RiskReversal Pod

AI Financing Bubble: Circular Capital Flows Signal Imminent Margin Compression

Semiconductors Alternative Asset Management Enterprise Software
Tickers
3 Picks
Conviction HIGH
Risk Profile 4.6/10 (ELEVATED RISK)
Horizon 6-18 months
Signal Snapshot Core Theme: Artificial Intelligence

AI infrastructure buildout continues with strong fundamentals

Financing arrangements becoming increasingly circular and interdependent

NVDA earnings; Credit spreads; Margin compression

Executive Summary

IBM suffered its worst trading day in 25 years yesterday after Anthropic released research demonstrating AI's capability to replace legacy COBOL programming infrastructure. This single-day collapse reveals the fragility underlying the AI investment complex, where circular financing arrangements between chip makers, cloud providers, and alternative lenders have created a self-reinforcing bubble vulnerable to narrative breaks. Blue Owl's inability to place $4 billion in CoreWeave data center debt ...

Key Investment Opportunity

NVDA Margin Compression Trade

Competition from custom silicon (Google TPUs, Meta chips) and AMD's aggressive pricing will compress NVDA's gross margins from 74% toward historical semiconductor norms of 50-60%

...and 2 more investment opportunities

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