📄 earnings_call Analysis • December 19, 2025 • Micron Technology Q1 FY26 Earnings Call

The Memory Monopolist: When Supply Constraints Become Strategic Weapons

Memory Semiconductors
Tickers
1 Pick
Conviction HIGH
Risk Profile 1.0/10 (MODERATE RISK)
Horizon 18-36 months
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Signal Snapshot Core Theme: Semiconductor Memory

AI drives memory demand growth

Supply shortage creates pricing power

HBM4 ramp; Multi-year contracts; Capacity constraints

Executive Summary

Micron reported record Q1 FY26 results with revenue of $13.6B (+57% YoY) and gross margins of 56.8%, while guiding Q2 to a record $18.7B revenue with 68% gross margins. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra explicitly stated the company can only meet 'half to two-thirds of demand from several key customers' in the medium term, creating unprecedented pricing power. The supply-demand imbalance extends beyond 2026, driven by AI data center buildouts requiring 3:1 DRAM-to-HBM conversion ratios. Management raised CapE...

Key Investment Opportunity

Memory Supply Constraint Monetization

Structural supply shortage creates unprecedented pricing power and margin expansion through 2026+

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