🎙️ podcast Analysis December 11, 2025 Exchanges by Goldman Sachs

The Lithography Trap: Why America's Chip Chokehold May Backfire Into Chinese Independence

Semiconductor Equipment Advanced Manufacturing Lithography Systems
Tickers
2 Picks
Conviction MEDIUM
Risk Profile 3.5/10 (MODERATE RISK)
Horizon 18-36 months

Executive Summary

The US-China tech war has created a paradox that Wall Street is missing: America's semiconductor export controls are accelerating China's path to independence rather than maintaining dependence. While markets focus on the obvious beneficiaries of reshoring, the real alpha lies in understanding that this is fundamentally a race between two different approaches to technological supremacy. China is pursuing quantity-driven engineering graduation (dramatically more electronic engineering PhDs annual...

Key Investment Opportunity

The Lithography Monopoly Play

ASML represents the ultimate 'Switzerland' position in the US-China tech war. As the only company capable of producing EUV lithography equipment necessary for advanced semiconductor manufacturing, ASML benefits regardless of which side wins the broader competition. The transcript reveals that China ...

...and 1 more investment opportunities

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