Executive Summary
Notable Capital's Jeff Richards identifies a fundamental disruption in enterprise software where consumption-based AI models are cannibalizing traditional SaaS pricing. Richards cites a portfolio company switching from Salesforce plus ancillary tools costing $15,000 per rep annually to a native AI solution at $3,000 per rep. The IGV software ETF added $60 billion in revenue in 2025, with $30 billion going to Microsoft alone, while private AI companies captured $25 billion in net new revenue growth from $8 billion to $35 billion. This year, private AI companies will likely add $50-75 billion versus $60 billion for legacy software, creating a slope advantage for consumption-based models. Richards argues every software company must answer whether their product improves as AI models improve, creating the classic innovator's dilemma where incumbents cannot compete on price without cannibalizing existing business. He identifies cybersecurity (Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike) and vertical software companies with integrated payments as the only defensible public software categories. Cybersecurity benefits from increasing AI-driven threats requiring higher enterprise spending, while vertical software serves customers without IT teams who are less likely to build internal AI solutions quickly.
Key Insights
what Jeff Richards said“It was costing them about $15,000 per rep per year. They switched to one of these new Native AI companies. It basically gives them that whole stack on a consumption basis for about $3,000 a year.”
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