🎙️ podcast Analysis January 26, 2026 The a16z Show

Private Markets: AI Infrastructure Build-Out Creates $400B Annual CapEx Cycle

AI Infrastructure Private Markets Enterprise Software
Tickers
4 Picks
Conviction HIGH
Risk Profile 1.7/10 (LOW RISK)
Horizon 12-24 months
Signal Snapshot Core Theme: Private Markets

AI infrastructure over-build risk concerns

Strongest balance sheets absorbing build-out risk

Q2 CapEx Data; Private Market Exits

Executive Summary

Big tech companies are running a $400 billion annual CapEx cycle into AI infrastructure, creating the largest technology build-out in history. This represents a fundamental shift from previous cycles where infrastructure risk was distributed across weaker players. Google, Facebook, Amazon, and Microsoft—described as 'probably the best companies ever created'—are bearing the infrastructure burden while AI application companies build on top. Simultaneously, AI model costs have declined 99% over tw...

Key Investment Opportunity

Big Tech AI Infrastructure Beneficiaries

Companies building AI infrastructure are positioned to benefit from $400B annual CapEx cycle while maintaining pricing power through competitive moats

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