🎙️ podcast Analysis February 11, 2026 RiskReversal Pod

Microsoft: AI CapEx Arms Race Creates Winner-Take-Most Dynamic Despite Software Selloff

Software Infrastructure Enterprise Software
Tickers
2 Picks
Conviction HIGH
Risk Profile 2.2/10 (MODERATE RISK)
Horizon 12-18 months
Signal Snapshot Core Theme: Enterprise AI Infrastructure

AI tools will disintermediate traditional enterprise software

Enterprise AI requires existing platforms for deployment scale

OpenAI Funding; Q1 Earnings; M&A Acceleration

Executive Summary

Dan Ives argues the current software selloff represents the most dramatic structural mispricing he has witnessed in 25 years of technology research. Microsoft trades at $409.68, down from recent highs, despite generating $77.41B in free cash flow and maintaining dominant positioning in the AI infrastructure arms race. The hyperscalers collectively increased CapEx by 50% to $350B in 2025, with another $250B increase planned for 2026. Ives contends this creates a 'now or never' dynamic where any c...

Key Investment Opportunity

Microsoft AI Infrastructure Monopoly

Microsoft's position as unavoidable enterprise AI partner with $400B contracted demand and 8-10x revenue multiplier from GPU spending

...and 1 more investment opportunities

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