🎙️ podcast Analysis January 25, 2026 The Macro Trading Floor

Global Asset Allocation: US Pension Fund Dollar Hedging Threatens SPY Dominance

International Equity ETFs Precious Metals Currency ETFs
Tickers
7 Picks
Conviction HIGH
Risk Profile 2.3/10 (MODERATE RISK)
Horizon 12-24 months
Signal Snapshot Core Theme: Global Asset Allocation

US concentration remains optimal despite recent underperformance

Pension funds face career risk maintaining 72% US allocation

Sustained US underperformance; Policy uncertainty episodes; Annual rebalancing cycles

Executive Summary

Global pension funds managing trillions in assets face a structural reckoning with their 72% US allocation through MSCI World. Recent tariff threats triggered the first meaningful 'middle finger' market response to Trump policies, with simultaneous bond, equity, and dollar weakness creating triple punishment for unhedged foreign holders. This episode mirrors April 2025 volatility but arrives after 12 months of US underperformance versus international markets. European, Japanese, Korean, and Cana...

Key Investment Opportunity

International Equity ETF Rotation

Global pension funds reducing 72% US allocation creates structural bid for international equity ETFs, particularly in countries with current account surpluses and attractive valuations

...and 2 more investment opportunities

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