🎙️ podcast Analysis January 25, 2026 MacroVoices

Critical Materials: China's Strategic Chokehold on Western Industrial Capacity

Critical Materials Defense Technology Energy Infrastructure
Tickers
3 Picks
Conviction HIGH
Risk Profile 2.2/10 (MODERATE RISK)
Horizon 12-36 months
Signal Snapshot Core Theme: Critical Materials

Commodity supercycle driven by AI and electrification demand

Chinese midstream control threatens Western industrial capacity

Chinese export licensing; Government reshoring funding

Executive Summary

China controls 50-98% of critical metal refining capacity across rare earths, gallium, magnesium, and tungsten—creating an unprecedented strategic vulnerability for Western industrial capacity. Craig Tindale's Pentagon-reviewed analysis reveals that while the West focuses on mining locations, China has systematically captured the midstream processing that transforms raw materials into usable industrial inputs. This represents the ultimate manifestation of state capitalism versus stateless capita...

Key Investment Opportunity

Critical Materials Scarcity Play

Chinese dominance of midstream processing creates physical supply constraints independent of commodity cycles, with government-backed Western reshoring creating winners among early-stage processors

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