TSM: Valuation Sensitivity to Macro Regimes
Executive Thesis:
TSM is the singular, non-replicable chokepoint in AI chip manufacturing. With NVDA gross margins at ~75% and TSM as the exclusive advanced-node manufacturer, the structural case for TSM recapturing margin via a 5–10% price hike (Nikkei, July 2026) is compelling. The prior ADD thesis (Jan and Apr 2026) was correct directionally; the stock has retraced 16% from its 52W high of $479, creating a more attractive technical setup. However, the 10Y yield at 4.55% compresses the re-rating multiple, and t
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